April 07, 2006

Urgh - theories

Why don't we just nationalize the economy and declare ourselves the republic of haliburton, bectel, mobil and monsanto? After all, government is the fastest growing industry today, by far. The only effective unions are public employee unions, built at the expense of public unions. The political sphere is a usurption, of interest, both in time and space.

In fact - to describe modern publik edyoucayshun results : GED - an albatross for every kid that gets one : HS Diploma - this one sings, i can pay enough attention to stay bored in school : AS - you can play in the system - BA/BS mass lemmings in debt : MS - thinking indoctrinated lemmings : PHD - piled higher and deeper: LIFE - bears no relationship to any of the above; if you can put things together. Cognitive dissonance ensures that you cannot.

Models go wrong in prediction because we the modelers cannot comprehend inputs that are not in the model to begin with. If we limit ourselves based on what we already know, our models lack the ability to respond - they have to fit past data to be a predictor of future data, but they cannot anticipate. So toss all the climate models, and start comparing results of actions taken based on those models. Especially when the model is a black box and not your own derivative.

Game theory plays well for modeling, especially when the results can be treated statistically. Refinement through iteration allows a narrowing of the range of error. If we stop repeating things and dehabilitiate redundency, then we are at the mercy of the weakest link in the chain, with a wide realm of potential error.

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